USDJPY Analysis
| Week ending 2023-03-31 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 130.57 | 133.59 | 130.38 | 132.80 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.11% | 14.8 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-03-31 | 1.6% | 209.6 Pips | |
||
| March | -2.48% | -337.5 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday 
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar
What happened over the week
π πΊπΈ USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan π πΊπΈ USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan π πΊπΈ USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February. 
π π―π΅ JPY Large Retailer Sales | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 4.7% compared to previous figure 5.3% in January. Source: METI π π―π΅ JPY Retail Trade seasonal adjustment (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 1.4% compared to previous figure 1.9% in January. Source: METI π π―π΅ JPY Industrial Production (12-mth) | Feb flash in February preliminary estimate below forecast and improved to -0.6% compared to previous figure -3.1% in January. Source: METI π π―π΅ JPY Industrial Production (1-mth) | Feb flash in February preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.5% compared to previous figure -5.3% in January. Source: METI π π―π΅ JPY Retail Trade (12-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and rose to 6.6% compared to previous figure 5, revised from 6.3% in January. Source: METI π π―π΅ JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (12-mth) | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 3.4% compared to previous figure 3.2% in February. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan π π―π΅ JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (12-mth) | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.3% in February. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan π π―π΅ JPY Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth) | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to 3.3% compared to previous figure 3.4% in February. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan π π―π΅ JPY Jobs / Applicants Ratio | Feb in February below forecast and dropped to 1.34 points compared to previous figure 1.35 points in January. Source: JILPT π π―π΅ JPY Unemployment Rate | Feb in February exceed forecast and rose to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.4% in January. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan π πΊπΈ USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis π β’οΈ πΊπΈ USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis π πΊπΈ USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDJPY on Friday rose 0.11% to 132.80. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair rose 1.6% or 209.6 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 130.38.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 133.59 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 132.26. On the downside, we are looking at week low 130.38 or 130.92 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 133.59 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, USDJPY is down by -2.48% or -337.5 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 137.35 |
| R2 | 135.47 |
| R1 | 134.13 |
| Weekly Pivot | 132.26 |
| S1 | 130.92 |
| S2 | 129.04 |
| S3 | 127.71 |
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