USDCAD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.18% | 23.5 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-14 | -1.05% | -142 Pips |  |
||
| April | -1.11% | -150 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM CAD Bank of Canada Core Inflation CPI (12-mth) | Mar Tue 04:00 PM CAD Bank of Canada’s Governor Tiff Macklem speech
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 01:30 PM CAD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) | Feb
What happened over the week
📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Apr flash in April preliminary estimate unchanged at 2.9% compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Apr flash in April preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 63.5 points compared to previous figure 62 points in March Source: University of Michigan 📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to -1% compared to previous figure -0.2, revised from -0.4% in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 📆 USD In the week ending 08 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 239K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor
📆 🇨🇳 CNY Trade Balance in USD | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to 88.19$ compared to previous figure 116.8$ in February 📆 🇺🇸 USD Monthly Budget Statement | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to -378$ compared to previous figure -262$ in February. 📆 ☢️ 🇨🇦 CAD Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate unchanged at 4.5% compared to previous rate 4.5%. Source: Bank of Canada 📆 🇺🇸 USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 5% compared to previous figure 6% in February Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCAD on Friday rose 0.18% to 1.33610. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-04-14, the pair dropped -1.05% or -142 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.32980.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.32548 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.31485 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.35537 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.32980 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of April, USDCAD is down by -1.11% or -150 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.37662 |
| R2 | 1.36599 |
| R1 | 1.35105 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.34042 |
| S1 | 1.32548 |
| S2 | 1.31485 |
| S3 | 1.29991 |
You might also be interested in:
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, February 2023 Source: Statistics Canada Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 21-22, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening Source: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report – April 2023 Source: Bank of Canada CPI for all items rises 0.1% in March as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
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