EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.5% | -53.7 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-06-02 | -0.18% | -19 Pips | |
||
| June | 0.19% | 20.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 10:00 AM EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) Thu 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) Thu 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payroll Employment in May exceed forecast and rose to 339K compared to previous figure 294K in April (revised from 253K) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 🇺🇸 In the week ending 27 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 232K compared to previous figure 229K Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity in Q1 below forecast and improved to -2.1% compared to previous figure -2.7% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in May dropped to 278K compared to previous figure 291K (revised from 296K) 🇪🇺 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 6.1% compared to previous figure 7% in April Source: Eurostat 🇪🇺 Euro Area Unemployment Rate in April dropped to 6.5% compared to previous figure 6.6% (revised from 6.5%) Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in April below forecast and improved to -4.3% compared to previous figure -8.6% in March Source: Destatis 🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in March dropped to 0.6% compared to previous figure 0.7% (revised from 0.5%)
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.5% to 1.07060. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-06-02, the pair dropped -0.18% or -19 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.06340.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.07790 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.07063. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.06340 or 1.06337 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.06340 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of June, EURUSD is up by 0.19% or 20.4 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.09237 |
| R2 | 1.08513 |
| R1 | 1.07787 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.07063 |
| S1 | 1.06337 |
| S2 | 1.05613 |
| S3 | 1.04887 |
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Payroll employment increases by 339,000 in May; unemployment rate rises to 3.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
In April 2023, manufacturing output recovered (+0.7%) Source: INSEE
Euro area annual inflation down to 6.1% Source: Eurostat Euro area unemployment at 6.5% Source: Eurostat
Gross domestic product grew an average of 3.1% per year from 1950 to 2022 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) In Q1 2023, prices of buildings’ maintenance and improvement works rose by 2.3% over a quarter and by 8.9% over a year Source: INSEE In March 2023, manufacturing turnover bounced back (+2.1%) Source: INSEE In Q1 2023, services producer prices rose by 0.2% over a quarter and by 3.0% over a year Source: INSEE In April 2023, agricultural producer prices fell markedly year on year (‑6.7% after ‑1.3 %) Source: INSEE In May 2023, consumer prices increased by 5.1% year on year Source: INSEE Inflation rate expected in May 2023 +6.1% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) In Q1 2023, GDP grew moderately (+0.2%) while the purchasing power of household GDI per consumption unit fell (-0.6%) Source: INSEE Services output was almost stable in March 2023 (‑0.1%) Source: INSEE In April 2023 the industrial producer prices fell back sharply over a month (-4.1%) and decelerated over a year (+5.0% after +9.5%) Source: INSEE Household consumption of goods decreased by 1.0% in April 2023 Source: INSEE In March 2023, sales volume in trade decreased (‑0.6%) Source: INSEE Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings from April 10 through May 3, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve In Q1 2023, prices of second-hand dwellings fell by 0.2% Source: INSEE
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