AUDUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.42% | 27.9 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-06-09 | 2.04% | 134.8 Pips | |
||
| June | 3.66% | 237.9 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) Tue 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (12-mth) Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 02:30 AM AUD Employment Change (seasonally adjusted) Thu 02:30 AM AUD Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) Thu 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Control Group Fri 03:00 PM USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 In the week ending 03 June, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 261K compared to previous figure 233K (revised from 232K) Source: Department of Labor 🇦🇺 Australia Imports (1-mth) in April unchanged at 2% compared to previous report in March. 🇦🇺 Australia Trade Balance (1-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 11158M compared to previous figure 15269M in March Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇦🇺 Australia Exports (1-mth) in April dropped to -5% compared to previous figure 4% in March 🇺🇸 U.S. Goods and Services Trade Balance in April dropped to -74.6$ compared to previous figure -60.6$ (revised from -64.2$) 🇦🇺 GDP (12-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 2.3% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q4 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇦🇺 GDP (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.5% in Q4 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇦🇺 AiG Industry Index in April improved to -10.9 points compared to previous figure -20.1 points in March 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target) exceed forecast and rose to 4.1% compared to previous rate 3.85% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia 🇺🇸 Factory Orders (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 4% compared to previous figure 0.9% in March Source: Census Bureau
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.42% to 0.67390. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-06-09, the pair rose 2.04% or 134.8 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.68005 (WR1) with break above could target 0.68621 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.65780 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.67508 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of June, AUDUSD is up by 3.66% or 237.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.69733 |
| R2 | 0.68621 |
| R1 | 0.68005 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.66893 |
| S1 | 0.66277 |
| S2 | 0.65165 |
| S3 | 0.64549 |
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Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau Marine Economy Satellite Account, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report – Retail Source: Census Bureau Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
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