AUDUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.24% | -15.7 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-28 | -1.18% | -78.8 Pips |  |
||
| April | -1.1% | -73.8 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 05:30 AM AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target) Tue 05:30 AM AUD RBA Cash Rate Statement Wed 02:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Wed 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 07:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference Thu 02:30 AM AUD Trade Balance (1-mth) 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 02:30 AM AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in April exceed forecast and rose to 3% compared to previous figure 2.9% in March Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in April unchanged at 63.5 points compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Personal Income (1-mth) in March unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in February. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in March rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.8%. 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 4.4% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.1% compared to previous figure 2.6% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 230K compared to previous figure 245K Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in March rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -0.3% (revised from 0%). Source: Census Bureau 🇦🇺 Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to 6.1% compared to previous figure 6.8% in February Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇦🇺 CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth) in Q1 exceed forecast and dropped to 1.4% compared to previous figure 1.9% in Q4 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇦🇺 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 1.2% compared to previous figure 1.7% in Q4 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.623, revised from 0.64M in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 Housing Price Index (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.1, revised from 0.2% in January 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in March unchanged at -0.19 points compared to previous report in February.
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.24% to 0.66112. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-04-28, the pair dropped -1.18% or -78.8 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.65728.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.65542 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.64972 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.67054 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.65728 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of April, AUDUSD is down by -1.1% or -73.8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.68194 |
| R2 | 0.67624 |
| R1 | 0.66868 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.66298 |
| S1 | 0.65542 |
| S2 | 0.64972 |
| S3 | 0.64216 |
You might also be interested in:
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
CPI rose 1.4 per cent in the March 2023 quarter Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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