|Week ending 2023-03-31|
|Week 2023-03-31||0.45%||29.7 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 05:30 AM AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Tue 05:30 AM AUD RBA Cash Rate Statement
Wed 03:30 AM AUD RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe speech
Thu 02:30 AM AUD Trade Balance (1-mth) | Feb
Thu 03:00 PM AUD Good Friday
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar
What happened over the week
📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February.
📆 🇺🇸 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
📆 🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
📆 ☢️ 🇦🇺 AUD Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) | Feb in February below forecast and dropped to 6.8% compared to previous figure 7.4% in January. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
📆 ☢️ 🇦🇺 AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth) | Feb in February below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 1.9% in January. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.39% to 0.66850. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair rose 0.45% or 29.7 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.66555.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.67380 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.66928. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.66555 or 0.66477 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.67380 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, AUDUSD is down by -0.68% or -45.8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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Payroll employment rises by 311,000 in February; unemployment rate edges up to 3.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
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