AUDUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.16% | 10.3 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-05-26 | -2% | -133 Pips |  |
||
| May | -1.42% | -94.2 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 AM USD Memorial Day
Wed 02:30 AM AUD Monthly CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Thu 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May exceed forecast and dropped to 3.1% compared to previous figure 3.2% in April Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May exceed forecast and rose to 59.2 points compared to previous figure 57.7 points in April Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 4.6% in March Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis USD Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in April dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% (revised from 0.3%). Source: Census Bureau 🇦🇺 Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in March Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 1.3% compared to previous figure 1.1% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 20 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 229K compared to previous figure 225K (revised from 242K) Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.07 points compared to previous figure -0.37, revised from -0.19 points in March 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.656, revised from 0.683M in March Source: Census Bureau
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.16% to 0.65170. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-05-26, the pair dropped -2% or -133 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.64900.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.64489 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.63807 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.66674 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.64900 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of May, AUDUSD is down by -1.42% or -94.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.68037 |
| R2 | 0.67355 |
| R1 | 0.66263 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.65581 |
| S1 | 0.64489 |
| S2 | 0.63807 |
| S3 | 0.62715 |
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Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Retail sales flat in April Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), First Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2-3, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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