EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.1% | -11 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-28 | 0.24% | 26 Pips |  |
||
| April | 1.62% | 175.9 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 07:00 AM EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth)
Tue 09:00 AM EUR European Central Bank Bank Lending Survey Tue 10:00 AM EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) Tue 10:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Wed 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 07:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference Thu 01:15 PM EUR European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision Statement Thu 01:15 PM EUR European Central Bank Rate On Deposit Facility Thu 01:15 PM EUR ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:45 PM EUR European Central Bank Press Conference Fri 10:00 AM EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in April exceed forecast and rose to 3% compared to previous figure 2.9% in March Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in April unchanged at 63.5 points compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Personal Income (1-mth) in March unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in February. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇪🇺 GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 1.8% in Q4 Source: Eurostat 🇩🇪 GDP (12-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to -0.1% compared to previous figure 0.9% in Q4 Source: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. in March unchanged at 5.6% compared to previous report in February. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Destatis 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in March rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.8%. 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 4.4% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.1% compared to previous figure 2.6% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 230K compared to previous figure 245K Source: Department of Labor 🇪🇺 Business Climate in April dropped to 0.54 points compared to previous figure 0.7 points in March Source: European Commission 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in March rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -0.3% (revised from 0%). Source: Census Bureau 🇩🇪 Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in May below forecast and improved to -25.7 points compared to previous figure -29.3, revised from -29.5 points in April Source: GfK 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.623, revised from 0.64M in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 Housing Price Index (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.1, revised from 0.2% in January 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in March unchanged at -0.19 points compared to previous report in February. 🇪🇺 ifo Business Climate in April rose to 93.6 points compared to previous figure 93.2 points (revised from 93.3 points). Source: ifo Institute
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.1% to 1.10140. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-04-28, the pair rose 0.24% or 26 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.09610.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.10859 (WR1) with break above could target 1.11579 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.09610 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.10954 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of April, EURUSD is up by 1.62% or 175.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.12203 |
| R2 | 1.11579 |
| R1 | 1.10859 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.10235 |
| S1 | 1.09515 |
| S2 | 1.08891 |
| S3 | 1.08171 |
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In April 2023, consumer prices increased by 5.9% year on year Source: INSEE In February 2023, sales volume in trade increased slightly (+0.2%) Source: INSEE Services output dropped slightly in February 2023 (‑0.2%) Source: INSEE GDP increased moderately in Q1 2023 (+0.2%) Source: INSEE In March 2023, household consumption of goods decreased again (-1.3%) Source: INSEE
Household real consumption per capita decreases in both euro area and EU Source: Eurostat
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Household confidence has improved slightly in April 2023 Source: INSEE In April 2023, the real estate developers’ opinion on the demand for new housing has degraded sharply Source: INSEE In April 2023, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their activity prospects is stable Source: INSEE In April 2023, personal business outlook has improved in the building craft sector Source: INSEE Rise in business births registered in March 2023 Source: INSEE Frank Elderson: Policymakers as policy takers – accounting for climate-related and environmental factors in banking supervision and monetary policy Source: European Central Bank
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