EURUSD Analysis
Week ending 2023-04-07 | |||
Open | High | Low | Close |
1.08418 | 1.09733 | 1.07870 | 1.09014 |
Performance | |||||
Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
Friday | -0.15% | -16.2 Pips | |||
Week 2023-04-07 | 0.58% | 63.3 Pips | |||
April | 0.58% | 63.3 Pips |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 10:00 AM EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) | Mar
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) | Mar
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (12-mth) | Mar
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 07:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) | Mar
Fri 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) | Mar
Fri 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Control Group | Mar
Fri 03:00 PM USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Apr flash
Sat 01:00 AM USD IMF Meeting
What happened over the week
π β’οΈ πΊπΈ USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 236K compared to previous figure 326, revised from 311K in February. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
πΊπΈ π USD In the week ending 01 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 228K compared to previous figure 198K. Source: Department of Labor
π πΊπΈ USD S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 52.3 points compared to previous figure 53.3 points in February. Source:
π πΊπΈ USD Goods and Services Trade Balance | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to -70.5$ compared to previous figure -68.7, revised from -68.3$ in January. Source:
π π©πͺ EUR S&P Global/BME Composite PMI | Mar in March unchanged at 52.6 points compared to previous report in February. The actual figure is also in lineΒ with the forecast. Source:
π πΊπΈ USD Factory Orders (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and improved to -0.7% compared to previous figure -2.1, revised from -1.6% in January. Source: Census Bureau
π πΊπΈ USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 49.2 points compared to previous figure 49.3 points in February. Source:
π π©πͺ EUR S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 44.7 points compared to previous figure 44.4 points in February. Source:
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.15% to 1.09014. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-04-07, the pair rose 0.58% or 63.3 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07870.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09733 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08872. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.07870 or 1.08012 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09733 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of April, EURUSD is up by 0.58% or 63.3 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
R3 | 1.11738 |
R2 | 1.10735 |
R1 | 1.09875 |
Weekly Pivot | 1.08872 |
S1 | 1.08012 |
S2 | 1.07009 |
S3 | 1.06149 |
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NFP rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
The all employees-revised index of hourly labour cost – (ICHTrev-TS) Source: INSEE
In Q4 2022, payroll employment increased in two-thirds of the regions and was almost stable in the others Source: INSEE
Household saving rate up to 14.1% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
EU current account surplus β¬10.5 bn Source: Eurostat
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Philip R. Lane: Monetary policy and inflation Source: European Central Bank
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
In February 2023, manufacturing output bounced back (+1.3%) Source: INSEE
February job openings and layoffs and discharges decrease; quits edge up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Industrial producer prices down by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU Source: Eurostat
House prices up by 2.9% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau
Inflation rate expected in March 2023 +7.4% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
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