EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.49% | -53.7 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-14 | 0.82% | 89.6 Pips |  |
||
| April | 1.41% | 152.9 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Lagarde speech 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims 
Fri 08:30 AM EUR S&P Global/BME Composite PMI | Apr flash Fri 08:30 AM EUR S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI | Apr flash Fri 09:00 AM EUR S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr flash
What happened over the week
📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Apr flash in April preliminary estimate unchanged at 2.9% compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Apr flash in April preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 63.5 points compared to previous figure 62 points in March Source: University of Michigan 📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth) | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to -1% compared to previous figure -0.2, revised from -0.4% in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 📆 USD In the week ending 08 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 239K compared to previous figure 228K Source: Department of Labor 📆 🇪🇺 EUR Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and rose to 1.5% compared to previous figure 1, revised from 0.7% in January 📆 ☢️ 🇩🇪 EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) | Mar in March unchanged at 7.8% compared to previous report in February. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Destatis 📆 🇺🇸 USD Monthly Budget Statement | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to -378$ compared to previous figure -262$ in February. 📆 🇺🇸 USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 5% compared to previous figure 6% in February Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.49% to 1.09910. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-04-14, the pair rose 0.82% or 89.6 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.08300.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.11013 (WR1) with break above could target 1.12115 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.08300 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.10759 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of April, EURUSD is up by 1.41% or 152.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.13472 |
| R2 | 1.12115 |
| R1 | 1.11013 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.09656 |
| S1 | 1.08554 |
| S2 | 1.07197 |
| S3 | 1.06095 |
You might also be interested in:
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in February 2023 Source: INSEE In March 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 15.0% year on year Source: INSEE The Housing Rent Reference Index in Q1 2023 Source: INSEE In March 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.9% over one month and by 5.7% year on year Source: INSEE
Industrial production up by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Inflation rate in March 2023 at +7.4% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 21-22, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve CPI for all items rises 0.1% in March as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau Volume of retail trade down by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU Source: Eurostat
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