EURUSD Analysis
Week ending 2023-03-31 | |||
Open | High | Low | Close |
1.07645 | 1.09263 | 1.07430 | 1.08381 |
Performance | |||||
Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
Friday | -0.61% | -66.5 Pips | |||
Week 2023-03-31 | 0.74% | 79.3 Pips | |||
March | 2.49% | 263.3 Pips |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Fri 12:00 AM EUR Good Friday Bank Holiday
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar
What happened over the week
π πΊπΈ USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan
π πΊπΈ USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan
π πΊπΈ USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February.
π β’οΈ πͺπΊ EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) | Mar flash in March preliminary estimate rose to 5.7% compared to previous figure 5.6% in February. Source: Eurostat
π πͺπΊ EUR Unemployment Rate | Feb in February unchanged at 6.6% compared to previous report in January. . Source: Eurostat
π π©πͺ EUR Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. | Feb in February exceed forecast and rose to 5.6% compared to previous figure 5.5% in January. Source: Destatis
π β’οΈ π©πͺ EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to -7.1% compared to previous figure -6.9% in January. Source: Destatis
π πΊπΈ USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
π β’οΈ πΊπΈ USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
EUR Business Climate | Mar in March rose to 0.72 points compared to previous figure 0.71 points (revised from 0.72 points). Source: European Commission
π πΊπΈ USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
π π©πͺ EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey | Apr in April exceed forecast and improved to -29.5 points compared to previous figure -30.6, revised from -30.5 points in March. Source: GfK
π π©πͺ EUR ifo Current Assessment | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 95.4 points compared to previous figure 93.9 points in February. Source: ifo Institute
π π©πͺ EUR ifo Business Climate | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 93.3 points compared to previous figure 91.1 points in February. Source: ifo Institute
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.61% to 1.08381. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair rose 0.74% or 79.3 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07430.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09263 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08358. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.07430 or 1.07453 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09263 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 2.49% or 263.3 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
R3 | 1.11119 |
R2 | 1.10191 |
R1 | 1.09286 |
Weekly Pivot | 1.08358 |
S1 | 1.07453 |
S2 | 1.06525 |
S3 | 1.05620 |
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