EURUSD Analysis
Performance | |||||
Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
Friday | -0.62% | -68.2 Pips | |||
Week 2023-05-12 | -1.55% | -170.4 Pips | |||
May | -1.52% | -167 Pips |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Tue 01:30 PM USD Retail Trade Turnover (1-mth)
Wed 11:00 PM EUR Ascension Day
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3% in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 57.7 points compared to previous figure 63.5 points in April Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 In the week ending 06 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 264K compared to previous figure 242K Source: Department of Labor
🇺🇸 CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in April below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in March Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.62% to 1.08470. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-05-12, the pair dropped -1.55% or -170.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.07780 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.07089 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.10537 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.08468 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of May, EURUSD is down by -1.52% or -167 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
R3 | 1.11918 |
R2 | 1.11227 |
R1 | 1.09849 |
Weekly Pivot | 1.09158 |
S1 | 1.07780 |
S2 | 1.07089 |
S3 | 1.05711 |
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In April 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 15.1% year on year Source: INSEE
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Inflation rate in April 2023 at +7.2% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Isabel Schnabel: Challenges for monetary policy at times of high inflation Source: European Central Bank
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Philip R. Lane: Inflation and monetary policy Source: European Central Bank
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