EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.68% to 1.07588. Week ending 2023-03-24 rose 0.89%. What happened.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.68%	-73.3 Pips
Week 2023-03-24	0.89%	94.9 Pips
March	1.74%	184 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Sun 04:00 AM EUR Daylight Saving Time
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP (12-mth)

What happened over the week

📆 🇺🇸 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 49.3 points compared to previous figure 47.3 points in February. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Durable Goods Orders in February below forecast and improved to -1% compared to previous figure -5, revised from -4.5% in January. Source
📆 🇪🇺 EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 47.1 points compared to previous figure 48.5 points in February. Source
📆 🇪🇺 EUR Consumer Confidence in March preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 19.2 points compared to previous figure -19 points in February. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index in February below forecast and dropped to -0.19 points compared to previous figure 0.23 points in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) rose to 5% compared to previous rate 4.75%. Source
📆 🇩🇪 EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in March below forecast and dropped to 13 points compared to previous figure 28.1 points in February. Source

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.68% to 1.07588. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-03-24, the pair rose 0.89% or 94.9 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09300 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.07726. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.06290 or 1.06152 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09300 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 1.74% or 184 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
In Q4 2022, the Commercial Rent Index rose by 6.29% over a year Source: INSEE
In Q4 2022, the tertiary activities rent index rose by 6.46% over a year Source: INSEE
In Q4 2022, production costs in construction rose by 0.2% Source: INSEE
In Q4 2022, house prices slowed down significantly Source: INSEE
Rebound in business births registered in February 2023 Source: INSEE
U.S. International Transactions, 4th Quarter and Year 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Philip R. Lane: Monetary policy in Europe: The Role of Monetary Union Source: European Central Bank
Index Suggests Economic Growth Declined in February Source: Chicago Fed
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 21-22 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Philip R. Lane: Inflation and Monetary Policy Source: European Central Bank
Growth is holding up, inflation too Source: INSEE
Between October 2022 and January 2023, rents increased by 1.4% Source: INSEE
Production in construction up by 3.9% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Quarterly Financial Report Source: Census Bureau
Quarterly Financial Report – Retail Source: Census Bureau
Euro area international trade in goods deficit €30.6 bn Source: Eurostat
Euro area job vacancy rate at 3.1% Source: Eurostat
Coordinated central bank action to enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity Source: Federal Reserve

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