EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.41% | 44.9 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-06-30 | 0.01% | 0.7 Pips | |
||
| June | 1.98% | 212.2 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 
Tue 06:00 AM Independence Day Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Fri 05:45 PM European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in May. Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in June exceed forecast and rose to 64.4 points compared to previous figure 63.9 points in May Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Income (1-mth) in May rose to 0.4% compared to previous figure 0.3, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇪🇺 Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) in June preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 5.5% compared to previous figure 6.1% in May Source: Eurostat 🇪🇺 Euro Area Unemployment Rate in May unchanged at 6.5% compared to previous report in April. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. in May exceed forecast and rose to 5.7% compared to previous figure 5.6% in April Source: Destatis 🇩🇪 Germany Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) in May below forecast and improved to -3.6% compared to previous figure -4.3% in April Source: Destatis 🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q1 exceed forecast and rose to 2% compared to previous figure 1.3% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇩🇪 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in July exceed forecast and dropped to -25.4 points compared to previous figure -24.4, revised from -24.2 points in June Source: GfK 🇺🇸 U.S. New Residential Sales (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 0.763M compared to previous figure 0.68, revised from 0.683M in April Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.5, revised from 0.6% in March 🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in May rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure -0.6% (revised from -0.2%) Source: Census Bureau 🇩🇪 Germany ifo Business Climate in June dropped to 88.4 points compared to previous figure 91.5 points (revised from 91.7 points) Source: ifo Institute
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.41% to 1.09074. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-06-30, the pair rose 0.01% or 0.7 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.08350.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09761 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.09062. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.08350 or 1.08362 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09761 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of June, EURUSD is up by 1.98% or 212.2 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.11184 |
| R2 | 1.10473 |
| R1 | 1.09773 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.09062 |
| S1 | 1.08362 |
| S2 | 1.07651 |
| S3 | 1.06951 |
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Services output fell in April 2023 (‑0.5%) Source: INSEE In April 2023, sales volume in trade decreased again (‑1.2%) Source: INSEE Household consumption of goods increased by 0.5% in May 2023 Source: INSEE At the end of Q1 2023, the Maastricht debt accounted for €3,013.4 billion Source: INSEE In June 2023, consumer prices increased by 4.5% year on year Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, First Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Powell, Financial Stability and Economic Developments Source: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board releases results of annual bank stress test, which demonstrates that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and continue to lend to households and businesses even during a severe recession Source: Federal Reserve U.S. International Investment Position, 1st Quarter 2023 and Annual Update Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau In June 2023, household confidence has recovered slightly Source: INSEE Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Inflation is falling, growth is hesitant Source: INSEE
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