USDCHF Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.01% | -0.6 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-28 | 0.19% | 17.1 Pips |  |
||
| April | -2.31% | -210.9 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 07:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in April exceed forecast and rose to 3% compared to previous figure 2.9% in March Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in April unchanged at 63.5 points compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Personal Income (1-mth) in March unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in February. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇨🇭 KOF Leading Indicator in April below forecast and dropped to 96.4 points compared to previous figure 99.2, revised from 98.2 points in March Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute 🇨🇭 Real Retail Trade (12-mth) in March below forecast and dropped to -1.9% compared to previous figure -0.5, revised from 0.3% in February Source: Federal Statistical Office 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in March rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.8%. 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 4.4% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.1% compared to previous figure 2.6% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 230K compared to previous figure 245K Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in March rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -0.3% (revised from 0%). Source: Census Bureau 🇨🇭 ZEW Survey – Expectations in April exceed forecast and improved to -33.3 points compared to previous figure -41.3 points in March Source: ZEW 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.623, revised from 0.64M in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 Housing Price Index (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.1, revised from 0.2% in January 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in March unchanged at -0.19 points compared to previous report in February.
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.01% to 0.89371. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-04-28, the pair rose 0.19% or 17.1 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.88510.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.89764 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.89215. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.88510 or 0.88666 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.89764 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of April, USDCHF is down by -2.31% or -210.9 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.91174 |
| R2 | 0.90469 |
| R1 | 0.89920 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.89215 |
| S1 | 0.88666 |
| S2 | 0.87961 |
| S3 | 0.87412 |
You might also be interested in:
Swiss retail trade turnover grew by 0.9% in March 2023 Source: Federal Statistical Office
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Increase of 0.9% in nominal wages in 2022 and 1.9% decline in real wages Source: Federal Statistical Office
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