USDCHF Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.47% | -42.6 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-06-30 | -0.18% | -16.4 Pips | |
||
| June | -1.7% | -154.7 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 07:30 AM Consumer Price Index (12-mth)
Mon 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 
Tue 06:00 AM Independence Day Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in May. Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in June exceed forecast and rose to 64.4 points compared to previous figure 63.9 points in May Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Income (1-mth) in May rose to 0.4% compared to previous figure 0.3, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇨🇭 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator in June exceed forecast and rose to 90.8 points compared to previous figure 90.2 points in May Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute 🇨🇭 Switzerland Real Retail Trade (12-mth) in May below forecast and improved to -1.1% compared to previous figure -4, revised from -3.7% in April Source: Federal Statistical Office 🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q1 exceed forecast and rose to 2% compared to previous figure 1.3% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇨🇭 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations in June below forecast and improved to -30.8 points compared to previous figure -32.2 points in May Source: ZEW 🇺🇸 U.S. New Residential Sales (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 0.763M compared to previous figure 0.68, revised from 0.683M in April Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.5, revised from 0.6% in March 🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in May rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure -0.6% (revised from -0.2%) Source: Census Bureau
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.47% to 0.89477. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-06-30, the pair dropped -0.18% or -16.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.89113.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.90170 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.89587. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.89113 or 0.89003 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.89113 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of June, USDCHF is down by -1.7% or -154.7 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.91117 |
| R2 | 0.90644 |
| R1 | 0.90060 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.89587 |
| S1 | 0.89003 |
| S2 | 0.88530 |
| S3 | 0.87946 |
You might also be interested in:
Swiss retail trade turnover rose in May 2023 by 0.9% Source: Federal Statistical Office
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, First Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Powell, Financial Stability and Economic Developments Source: Federal Reserve 2023-06-28 – Quarterly Bulletin 2/2023 Source: SNB Federal Reserve Board releases results of annual bank stress test, which demonstrates that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and continue to lend to households and businesses even during a severe recession Source: Federal Reserve U.S. International Investment Position, 1st Quarter 2023 and Annual Update Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
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