USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.39% to 144.26. Week ending 2023-06-30 rose 0.42%. What’s going on.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance

Period

Pct

Chg

Momentum

Friday

-0.39%

-56.9 Pips

Week 2023-06-30

0.42%

60.6 Pips

June

3.56%

496.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tue 06:00 AM Independence Day
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:15 PM ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 03:00 PM ISM Services PMI
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

🇺🇸 U.S. UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in June unchanged at 3% compared to previous report in May. Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in June exceed forecast and rose to 64.4 points compared to previous figure 63.9 points in May Source: University of Michigan
🇺🇸 U.S. Personal Income (1-mth) in May rose to 0.4% compared to previous figure 0.3, revised from 0.4% in April Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production (12-mth) in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure -0.7% in April Source: METI
🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Production (1-mth) in May preliminary estimate exceed forecast and dropped to -1.6% compared to previous figure 0.7% in April Source: METI
🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (12-mth) in June unchanged at 3.2% compared to previous report in May. Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3.8% compared to previous figure 3.9% in May Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio in May below forecast and dropped to 1.31 points compared to previous figure 1.32 points in April Source: JILPT
🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth) in June below forecast and dropped to 3.1% compared to previous figure 3.2% in May Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇯🇵 Japan Unemployment Rate in May unchanged at 2.6% compared to previous report in April. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP Annualized in Q1 exceed forecast and rose to 2% compared to previous figure 1.3% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 below forecast and dropped to 4.9% compared to previous figure 5% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
🇯🇵 Japan Large Retailer Sales in May below forecast and dropped to 3.4% compared to previous figure 4.8% in April Source: METI
🇯🇵 Japan Retail Trade (12-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 5.7% compared to previous figure 5.1, revised from 5% in April Source: METI
🇺🇸 U.S. New Residential Sales (1-mth) in May exceed forecast and rose to 0.763M compared to previous figure 0.68, revised from 0.683M in April Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Price Index (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.7% compared to previous figure 0.5, revised from 0.6% in March
🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in May rose to 0.6% compared to previous figure -0.6% (revised from -0.2%) Source: Census Bureau

USDJPY Daily Chart by TradingView

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -0.39% to 144.26. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-06-30, the pair rose 0.42% or 60.6 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 145.24 (WR1) with break above could target 146.22 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 142.93 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 145.07 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of June, USDJPY is up by 3.56% or 496.2 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

147.37

146.22

145.24

Weekly Pivot

144.09

143.11

141.95

140.97

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