USDJPY Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.39% | 54 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-05-26 | 1.97% | 271.7 Pips | |
||
| May | 3.2% | 435.5 Pips |  |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 06:00 AM USD Memorial Day 
Thu 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in May exceed forecast and dropped to 3.1% compared to previous figure 3.2% in April Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in May exceed forecast and rose to 59.2 points compared to previous figure 57.7 points in April Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (12-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 4.7% compared to previous figure 4.6% in March Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis USD Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in April dropped to -0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% (revised from 0.3%). Source: Census Bureau
🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.5% in April Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan 🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy (12-mth) in May below forecast and rose to 3.9% compared to previous figure 3.8% in April Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan 🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI (Inflation Rate) (12-mth) in May below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.5% in April Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 1.3% compared to previous figure 1.1% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 20 May, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 229K compared to previous figure 225K (revised from 242K) Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.07 points compared to previous figure -0.37, revised from -0.19 points in March 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.656, revised from 0.683M in March Source: Census Bureau
What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDJPY on Friday rose 0.39% to 140.59. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-05-26, the pair rose 1.97% or 271.7 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 141.72 (WR1) with break above could target 142.84 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 137.49 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 140.72 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of May, USDJPY is up by 3.2% or 435.5 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 144.95 |
| R2 | 142.84 |
| R1 | 141.72 |
| Weekly Pivot | 139.60 |
| S1 | 138.48 |
| S2 | 136.37 |
| S3 | 135.25 |
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Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), First Quarter 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2-3, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Machinery Orders Source: Cabinet Office
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