USDJPY Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 1.76% | 235 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2023-04-28 | 1.6% | 214.4 Pips | |
||
| April | 2.59% | 344.3 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 04:00 PM JPY Constitution Day
Wed 01:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Wed 04:00 PM JPY Greenery Day Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement Wed 07:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference 
Thu 01:30 PM USD Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 04:00 PM JPY Children’s Day Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in April exceed forecast and rose to 3% compared to previous figure 2.9% in March Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in April unchanged at 63.5 points compared to previous report in March. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: University of Michigan 🇺🇸 Personal Income (1-mth) in March unchanged at 0.3% compared to previous report in February. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate unchanged at -0.1% compared to previous rate -0.1% Source: Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 Industrial Production (1-mth) in March preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 4.6% in February Source: METI 🇯🇵 Retail Trade (12-mth) in March exceed forecast and dropped to 7.2% compared to previous figure 7.3, revised from 6.6% in February Source: METI 🇯🇵 Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (12-mth) in April exceed forecast and rose to 3.5% compared to previous figure 3.2% in March Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (1-mth) in March rose to 0.8% compared to previous figure 0.8%. 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) in Q1 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.9% compared to previous figure 4.4% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 GDP Annualized in Q1 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 1.1% compared to previous figure 2.6% in Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 🇺🇸 In the week ending 22 April, the Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 230K compared to previous figure 245K Source: Department of Labor 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation in March rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -0.3% (revised from 0%). Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 New Residential Sales (1-mth) in March exceed forecast and rose to 0.683M compared to previous figure 0.623, revised from 0.64M in February Source: Census Bureau 🇺🇸 Housing Price Index (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.1, revised from 0.2% in January 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index in March unchanged at -0.19 points compared to previous report in February.
What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDJPY on Friday rose 1.76% to 136.24. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-04-28, the pair rose 1.6% or 214.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 137.53 (WR1) with break above could target 138.83 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 133.00 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 136.56 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of April, USDJPY is up by 2.59% or 344.3 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 141.10 |
| R2 | 138.83 |
| R1 | 137.53 |
| Weekly Pivot | 135.27 |
| S1 | 133.97 |
| S2 | 131.71 |
| S3 | 130.41 |
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