EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.61% to 1.08381. Week ending 2023-03-31 rose 0.74%. What happened.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.61%	-66.5 Pips
Week 2023-03-31	0.74%	79.3 Pips
March	2.49%	263.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Fri 12:00 AM EUR Good Friday Bank Holiday
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar

What happened over the week

📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February.
📆 ☢️ 🇪🇺 EUR Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth) | Mar flash in March preliminary estimate rose to 5.7% compared to previous figure 5.6% in February. Source: Eurostat
📆 🇪🇺 EUR Unemployment Rate | Feb in February unchanged at 6.6% compared to previous report in January. . Source: Eurostat
📆 🇩🇪 EUR Unemployment Rate seasonal adjustment. | Feb in February exceed forecast and rose to 5.6% compared to previous figure 5.5% in January. Source: Destatis
📆 ☢️ 🇩🇪 EUR Retail Trade Turnover (12-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to -7.1% compared to previous figure -6.9% in January. Source: Destatis
📆 🇺🇸 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
EUR Business Climate | Mar in March rose to 0.72 points compared to previous figure 0.71 points (revised from 0.72 points). Source: European Commission
📆 🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
📆 🇩🇪 EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey | Apr in April exceed forecast and improved to -29.5 points compared to previous figure -30.6, revised from -30.5 points in March. Source: GfK
📆 🇩🇪 EUR ifo Current Assessment | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 95.4 points compared to previous figure 93.9 points in February. Source: ifo Institute
📆 🇩🇪 EUR ifo Business Climate | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 93.3 points compared to previous figure 91.1 points in February. Source: ifo Institute

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.61% to 1.08381. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair rose 0.74% or 79.3 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.07430.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09263 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08358. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.07430 or 1.07453 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09263 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 2.49% or 263.3 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Payroll employment rises by 311,000 in February; unemployment rate edges up to 3.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
In February 2023 the industrial producer prices fell back over a month (-0.7%) and remained on a high rise over a year (+13.0%) Source: INSEE
In January 2023, the sales volume in trade bounced back (+0.6%) Source: INSEE
Services output increased in January 2023 (+1.6%) Source: INSEE
In March 2023, consumer prices increased by 5.6% year on year Source: INSEE
Household consumption of goods slipped back in February 2023 (-0.8%) Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In March 2023, household confidence has worsened again slightly Source: INSEE
In March 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles as a whole has deteriorated Source: INSEE
In March 2023, the business climate in France has faltered a little and the employment climate is stable Source: INSEE
In March 2023, the business climate has slightly rebounded in wholesale trade Source: INSEE
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
In March 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly folded Source: INSEE
In March 2023, the business climate in the building construction industry has deteriorated slightly again Source: INSEE
In March 2023, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services Source: INSEE
In 2022, the public deficit reached 4.7% of GDP, the public debt 111.6% of GDP Source: INSEE
At the end of Q4 2022, the Maastricht debt accounted for €2,950.0 billion Source: INSEE

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