|Week ending 2023-03-17|
|Week 2023-03-17||1.75%||115 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:30 AM AUD RBA Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
Fri 12:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Fri 12:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods xcluding Aircraft
What happened over the week
📆 🇺🇸 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in March exceed forecast and improved to -23.2 points compared to previous figure -24.3 points in February. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Building Permits (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 1.524M compared to previous figure 1.339M in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇦🇺 AUD Employment Change (seasonally adjusted) in February exceed forecast and rose to 64.6K compared to previous figure -11.5K in January. Source
📆 🇦🇺 AUD Full-Time Employment in February rose to 74.9K compared to previous figure -43.3K in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇦🇺 AUD Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) in February below forecast and dropped to 3.5% compared to previous figure 3.7% in January. Source
📆 🇦🇺 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations in March below forecast and dropped to 5% compared to previous figure 5.1% in February. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Control Group in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 2.3, revised from 1.7% in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.4% in January. Source
What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.64% to 0.66950. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2023-03-17, the pair rose 1.75% or 115 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.67246 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.66736. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.66012 or 0.66226 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.67246 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, AUDUSD is down by -0.53% or -35.8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
U.S. import prices fall 0.1% in February on lower fuel prices; export prices rise 0.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Quarterly Services Survey Source: Census Bureau
PPI for final demand declines 0.1% in February; goods fall 0.2%, services decrease 0.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in February as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors Source: Federal Reserve
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