EURUSD on Friday rose 0.48% to 1.06639. Week ending 2023-03-17 rose 0.24%. What happened.

EURUSD by TradingView

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.48%	51.4 Pips
Week 2023-03-17	0.24%	25.2 Pips
March	0.84%	89.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 02:00 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Lagarde speech
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
Fri 12:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Fri 12:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods xcluding Aircraft

What happened over the week

📆 🇪🇺 EUR Labor Cost in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 5.7% compared to previous figure 3.7, revised from 2.9% in Q3. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇪🇺 EUR ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO) rose to 3.5% compared to previous rate 3%. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in March exceed forecast and improved to -23.2 points compared to previous figure -24.3 points in February. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Building Permits (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 1.524M compared to previous figure 1.339M in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Control Group in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 2.3, revised from 1.7% in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.4% in January. Source

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.48% to 1.06639. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in neutral zone. For the week ending 2023-03-17, the pair rose 0.24% or 25.2 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.07600 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.06463. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.05150 or 1.05326 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.07600 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of March, EURUSD is up by 0.84% or 89.1 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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In Q4 2022, labour cost index – wages and salaries increased by 2.0%, total labour cost index by 1.4% Source: INSEE
In February 2023, oil prices in euros increased slightly, food commodity prices accelerated Source: INSEE
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement Source: European Central Bank
Monetary policy decisions Source: European Central Bank
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
U.S. import prices fall 0.1% in February on lower fuel prices; export prices rise 0.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Industrial production up by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Quarterly Services Survey Source: Census Bureau
PPI for final demand declines 0.1% in February; goods fall 0.2%, services decrease 0.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in January 2023 Source: INSEE
In February 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 14.2% year on year Source: INSEE
In February 2023, consumer prices increased by 1.0% over one month and by 6.3% year on year Source: INSEE
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in February as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Inflation rate in February 2023 at +8.7% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors Source: Federal Reserve

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