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USDJPY on Friday dropped -1.31% to 131.80. Week ending 2023-03-17 moved lower by -2.34%. What you need to know.

USDJPY on Friday dropped -1.31% to 131.80. Week ending 2023-03-17 moved lower by -2.34%. What you need to know.


Week ending 2023-03-17
Open High Low Close
133.89 135.11 131.53 131.80
Performance
Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -1.31% -175 Pips
Week 2023-03-17 -2.34% -316 Pips
March -3.21% -436.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 03:00 PM JPY Vernal Equinox Day
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
Fri 12:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Fri 12:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods xcluding Aircraft

What happened over the week

๐Ÿ“† ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in March exceed forecast and improved to -23.2 points compared to previous figure -24.3 points in February. Source
๐Ÿ“† ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USD Building Permits (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 1.524M compared to previous figure 1.339M in January. Source
๐Ÿ“† ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total in February exceed forecast and improved to -897.7ยฅ compared to previous figure -3498.6, revised from -3496.6ยฅ in January. Source
๐Ÿ“† โ˜ข๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USD Retail Control Group in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 2.3, revised from 1.7% in January. Source
๐Ÿ“† โ˜ข๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.4% in January. Source


What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -1.31% to 131.80. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling into oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-03-17, the pair dropped -2.34% or -316 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 131.53.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 130.52 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 129.23 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 135.11 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 131.53 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDJPY is down by -3.21% or -436.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 137.68
R2 136.39
R1 134.10
Weekly Pivot 132.81
S1 130.52
S2 129.23
S3 126.94

You might also be interested in:

Report on Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (January 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
The Time Series Data on Current Production Statistics Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
U.S. import prices fall 0.1% in February on lower fuel prices; export prices rise 0.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Monthly Report of Current Production Statistics (January 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Revised Report on Indices of Industrial Production (January 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Monthly Report on the Current Survey of Commerce (January 2023) Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2021 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Machinery Orders Source: Cabinet Office
Trade Statistics (February 2023 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Quarterly Services Survey Source: Census Bureau
PPI for final demand declines 0.1% in February; goods fall 0.2%, services decrease 0.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 17 and 18, 2023 Source: Bank of Japan
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in February as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC Source: Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve Board announces it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors Source: Federal Reserve
Business Outlook Survey Source: Cabinet Office

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