USDJPY on Friday dropped -1.31% to 131.80. Week ending 2023-03-17 moved lower by -2.34%. What you need to know.

USDJPY by TradingView

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-1.31%	-175 Pips
Week 2023-03-17	-2.34%	-316 Pips
March	-3.21%	-436.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 03:00 PM JPY Vernal Equinox Day
Wed 06:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 06:00 PM USD FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
Wed 06:30 PM USD FOMC Press Conference
Fri 12:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Fri 12:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods xcluding Aircraft

What happened over the week

📆 🇺🇸 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in March exceed forecast and improved to -23.2 points compared to previous figure -24.3 points in February. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Building Permits (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 1.524M compared to previous figure 1.339M in January. Source
📆 🇯🇵 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total in February exceed forecast and improved to -897.7¥ compared to previous figure -3498.6, revised from -3496.6¥ in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Control Group in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.5% compared to previous figure 2.3, revised from 1.7% in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food & Energy sectors (1-mth) in February exceed forecast and rose to 0.5% compared to previous figure 0.4% in January. Source

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -1.31% to 131.80. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling into oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-03-17, the pair dropped -2.34% or -316 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 131.53.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 130.52 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 129.23 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 135.11 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 131.53 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of March, USDJPY is down by -3.21% or -436.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 17 and 18, 2023 Source: Bank of Japan
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Business Outlook Survey Source: Cabinet Office

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