USDCHF Analysis
Week ending 2023-03-31 | |||
Open | High | Low | Close |
0.91899 | 0.92231 | 0.91100 | 0.91480 |
Performance | |||||
Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
Friday | 0.21% | 18.8 Pips | |||
Week 2023-03-31 | -0.49% | -45 Pips | |||
March | -2.9% | -273 Pips |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 11:00 PM CHF Good Friday
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar
What happened over the week
π πΊπΈ USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan
π πΊπΈ USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan
π πΊπΈ USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February.
π π¨π CHF Real Retail Trade (12-mth) | Feb in February below forecast and rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure -1.7, revised from -2.2% in January. Source: Federal Statistical Office
π πΊπΈ USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
π β’οΈ πΊπΈ USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
π π¨π CHF KOF Leading Indicator | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to 98.2 points compared to previous figure 98.9, revised from 100 points in February. Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute
π πΊπΈ USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
π π¨π CHF ZEW Survey β Expectations | Mar in March exceed forecast and dropped to -41.3 points compared to previous figure -12.3 points in February. Source: ZEW
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday rose 0.21% to 0.91480. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair dropped -0.49% or -45 pips lower.
Looking ahead on Monday, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.91100.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.92231 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.91604. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.91100 or 0.90976 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.91100 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of March, USDCHF is down by -2.9% or -273 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
R3 | 0.93238 |
R2 | 0.92735 |
R1 | 0.92107 |
Weekly Pivot | 0.91604 |
S1 | 0.90976 |
S2 | 0.90473 |
S3 | 0.89845 |
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Swiss retail trade turnover rose by 3.4% in February 2023 Source: Federal Statistical Office
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2023-03-29 – Quarterly Bulletin 1/2023 Source: SNB
U.S. International Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
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