|Week ending 2023-03-31|
|Week 2023-03-31||0.9%||56 Pips|
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 03:00 AM NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate)
Wed 03:00 AM NZD RBNZ Official Cash Rate Statement
Thu 05:00 PM NZD Good Friday
Fri 06:00 AM USD Good Friday
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment | Mar
What happened over the week
📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation | Mar in March rose to 2.9% compared to previous figure 2.8% in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | Mar in March below forecast and dropped to 62 points compared to previous figure 63.4 points in February. Source: University of Michigan
📆 🇺🇸 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index | Mar in March exceed forecast and rose to 43.8 points compared to previous figure 43.6 points in February.
📆 🇳🇿 NZD ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | Mar in March dropped to 77.7 points compared to previous figure 79.8 points in February.
📆 🇺🇸 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (3-mth) | Q4 in Q4 exceed forecast and rose to 4.4% compared to previous figure 4.3% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD GDP Annualized | Q4 in Q4 below forecast and dropped to 2.6% compared to previous figure 2.7% in Q3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
📆 🇳🇿 NZD Building Permits seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) | Feb in February below forecast and dropped to -9% compared to previous figure -5.2, revised from -1.5% in January. Source: Stats NZ
📆 🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (1-mth) | Feb in February exceed forecast and dropped to 0.8% compared to previous figure 8.1% in January.
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.07% to 0.62570. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2023-03-31, the pair rose 0.9% or 56 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.61780.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.62974 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.62441. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.61780 or 0.61909 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.62974 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of March, NZDUSD is up by 1.18% or 72.9 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
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Payroll employment rises by 311,000 in February; unemployment rate edges up to 3.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
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